Derby 138

So it begins again........


Statistics, history, and even common sense are fine for occupying your mind as you follow these noble steeds on the perilous Derby trail. But if you expect them to actually pinpoint the Derby winner in that 20-horse cavalry charge, you’re likely in for a rude awakening.

 That’s not to say we shouldn’t try. What else are you going to do in January and February? Those lucky (and I stress lucky) enough to actually figure out that elusive Derby winner and cash a ticket will have bragging rights for an entire year. And the earlier you find him the harder you can beat your chest and be the smartest guy in the room. Just don’t take the search or the conquest too seriously. You can bet there is a horse right around the corner just waiting to make you feel like an ass. 


So it begins........

Ron's Triple Crown take

Well, we started all this six months ago and now here we are in mid June and I'm no smarter, or richer,  than I was last winter. It seems obvious to me Julian Leparoux  is what was wrong with Union Rags. Johnny V rode a great race and knew what to do and when to do it. And all of us pedigree guys are eating it now. I mean why would I put the co-favorite on the back end of my pick four ticket? I'm too smart for that! Oh, yeah I had the first three legs and the bet paid $1,283 ! ! !

   Oh, and to the  "I'm never betting a California horse again" guys....stand over there with that group of idiot pedigree guys. 1-2-3 in Louisville.....1-2 in Baltimore.....1-2 in New York. And remember the Breeders Cup will be on their home court.

And Ronnies last award for Triple Crown trainers who do and don't know what they're doing. First don't feel too sorry for Bobby B. when those guys still walk off with 600 K for trying to wire the Triple Crown. But the last award of the evening goes to D. What the Hell Lukas. Gets beat by 12 in the Derby, OK...by 15 in the Preakness, OK and by 28 in the Belmont. Not to mention the 20 length beat in Hot Springs. Remember we're doing what's best for the horse, right?

Ive had a few days to recover and digest it all. As I suspected the initial pace was a suicide mission although I expected Trinniberg to be on the lead through the half. Trinniberg pushed Bodemeister to such a fast half. it was a given he would get caught. However Bode ran one hell of a race and nearly pulled it off. Hansen was clearly rank and hard to control though he broke well.

In the stretch Bodemeister weakened and Mario Gutierrez on I’ll Have Another was in perfect striking position. After breaking from the 19 wide post position, he angled inside at the first turn and was only about one horse-wide from the rail. He never encountered any traffic trouble in the 20-horse field, and on the final turn he angled to the outside and past the leader.
He had a perfect trip.  I’ll Have Another finished the 1 1/4 miles in 2:01.83, a slow time over  a fast track. His overall Beyer Speed Figure of 101was the second-worst in the last 20 years ( Giacomo’s 100 in 2005.)

Based on that it's doubtful that he will sweep the Triple Crown series. I congratulate Mario Gutierrez on a great ride and the connections who gave this impressive young jockey his shot.

Ron's Derby week take

ALPHA...........the Arabs VS the Irish (money won't buy this)

BODEMEISTER....True freak or bounce to the moon

CREATIVE CAUSE...All graded races, always cashes a check, already has run well at CD

DADDY LONG LEGS...Irish VS the Arabs (money won't buy this)

DADDY NOSE BEST...Undefeated as a sophomore at 1-1/8th, twice

DONE TALKING......Dead closer in a speed heavy race

DULLAHAN.............Dead closer in a speed heavy race

EL PADRINO......Beat up on weak FG horses

LIASION.............Bobby's 2nd string, lost by 15 total lengths in last two

MARK VALESKI.....The Governor and the girl (Brereton & Rosy) also beat up weak N.O. fields

OPTIMEZER.......Wayne, really? You lost by 20 in Hot Springs

GEMOLOGIST....Should be the fav, but won't. Undefeated, winner already at CD, so why wasn't he in the BC Juvy?

HANSON.........Will run all day, just not at 10 furlongs

I'LL HAVE ANOTHER.... Like Creative Cause? Then you must like this one, but has not run well outside Cali

PROSPECTIVE....King of Tampa

ROUSING SERMON....If he is so good why did Joe Talamo jump off?

SABERCAT.... Steve, really? You lost by 15 lengths in your last two.

TAKE CHARGE INDY....FLA Derby winner, Calvin aboard, nuff said!

TRINNIBERG.....Parboo, really? If the Derby gods have any justice he draws the rail.

UNION RAGS....All graded races, always cashes a check, already has run well at CD

WENT THE DAY WELL....Same team two years in a row? Derby Gods won't let it happen.

MY ADONIS.....I need him in the starting gate, cause I got him at 72-1 in the future book.

 

 

Derby Drama

If you see Gemologist and Creative Cause in a stretch dual,  you’re watching the son of Tiznow  battling with the son of Giant’s Causeway.

Ron's take

After looking at the form for days I think I have this Derby figured out. The top five finishers in last years Breeders Cup Juvenile were; Hanson, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Dullahan, Take Charge Indy. And that's your tri fecta  box for this years Derby!  And PLEASE stop telling me how great all these ponies are working. They should work well, tell me who is working shitty! Now that's news. 

 

-R-

 

Disclaimer: all opinions mentioned in this email are subject to change due to post postion draw, the ever changing god damned weather in the Ohio Valley and just because I can.

Horses easy, gamblin' hard

We are a little over a week away from Louisville being the center of the universe.

This is simple, hell just box all of the Breeder's Cup juvenille horses who have won major stakes races.

I think the connections of Trinniberg are making a huge mistake and are risking ruining the horse. He's a world class sprinter who doesnt belong in the Derby. He is going to impact the pace scenario in a bad way because all these speedballs will try to stay with him at a ridiculous 1/4 and 1/2 which sets up for Union Rags or Dullahan or even Daddy Nose best. He wont get a mile and a quarter at the pace he will run at. Who picks up the pieces in the stretch?