Ron Davidson; Tri State Derby Entourage
Well, it’s coming around again gentlemen. That post winter epiphany we all look so forward to. It was 70 degrees in Louisville, Kentucky today, baseball players are reporting for spring training (which has an odd feeling for us STL Cardinal fans coming off a World Series win facing the new season with no Albert Pujols or Tony Larussa). The prep races to prep races are now are over and what I’ve always considered the real opening to the Derby season is this Sunday with Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, the final prep for the Florida Derby.
As soon as the Breeder’s Cup Juvy was over I turned to you all and said even though Hanson beat Union Rags, the big white horse would get no respect and the Rags would be the one the geniuses would key on. And they have. And in reality it’s legit because I believe another sixteenth of a mile Hanson would have lost on the first Saturday in November at CD. I’m not big on any front runner, as Hanson is, when it comes to the classics. So, here we are almost four months later with Union Rags making his debut going against a Pletcher double entry. That sets up badly for Rags but sent Hanson packing to New York to prep in the Gotham.
Algorithms looks like the real deal in Hallendale (even though I hate Pletcher) who is 3-3 with two wins already over the GP track and putting Hanson away in the process by winning the Holy Bull. However, I’ve seen this before where a horse will dominate early in his 3 year old campaign and bounce down the line. Like winning the battle and losing the war. I want a horse who is hitting it right now with ten weeks to go before the mile and quarter race we hold in Louisville. Trouble is, I don’t see it in this race. Nicky Z is the only other shot with Casual Trick, but god damn, he lost his last race at GP by THIRTY lengths. So, you have to just throw that out because he just lost by two lengths before that in the Gulfstream Park Derby.
Also, this weekend will bring the final prep to the Louisiana Derby in the Risen Star. I’m sticking with Mr. Bowling, who I had as the Lecomte winner. Although, I think Asmussen’s Z Dager will be the chalk. I sense an upset in the Crescent City late Saturday afternoon.
And one more item to put before you. With all these pumped up purses this season I think it will take a minimum of $250,000 this year to get into the gate for the Central Avenue 10 furlong contest this May. Oh, my horse here late in February? Well, as it is no surprise, it's a Pleasant Colony offspring who came like a freight train in the Holy Bull when he came from 20 lengths back after a half-mile over a speed-conducive sloppy sealed track, and was still nearly a dozen lengths back at the head of the stretch to finish third behind a second place Hanson. It’s My Adonis and his next start is next weekend in the Gotham against the two year old champ, the big white horse, Hanson.
