Hansen to the Bluegrass

Yes the trend of pursing up against soft competition continues as well as protecting the investment. Having said that I think Mike Maker made a good decision with Hansen. I do not expect Hansen to win the Bluegrass even though I believe he is more than capable. This is a perfect opportunity for a training race that may pay big dividends both for the purse and breeding potential. I would bet money that Ramon Dominguez will be instructed not to risk him if he is not in a good position, he certainly doesn't need the earnings and a respectable 3rd is what I am predicting although being a fan of the Great White Hope I would like to see him win decisively. Keep him in Kentucky, less stress and remember he won his maiden and Ky Cup Juvenile on the poly at Turfway. He has already worked at Churchill and is obviously comfortable there. I want to see the big White horse come out of the Bluegrass sound. If he places or shows at Keeneland maybe he will go off at a halfway decent price come the first Saturday in May. Go Big Whitey!

Dodge Em has begun

Well with the news that Hanson is going in the Bluegrass instead of the Wood Memorial, the real game of dodge ‘em begins. With the big grey 2 year old champ staying in Kentucky the connections of Alpha say they will now go in the Wood Memorial instead of the Louisiana Derby. They just want to stay away from a challenge and need that big paycheck to get in the gate May 5^th. 

     Now, to this weeks preps. Although I have been saying, “who are these horses” in the preps up to now, I truly mean it this weekend. I really have never heard of any of the full field of 12 in the Vinery/ Jim Beam/ Gallery Furniture/ Lanes End SPIRAL Stakes at Turfway.  And the same goes for the Sunland Derby, what we like to call the Cowboy Derby in these parts. However, they don’t lack top connections and appear as the second and third strings also trying to cash out. In the two races we have Pletcher with 3, Baffert with 2, along with Assmussen, Motion, Maker, Hollendorfer as trainers.

     As you can see by the top ten in earning as of now at least two new horses will hit this list Monday morning. So, I’m not gonna think about it and save my money for the real deals over the next three weeks starting next weekend with both the Louisiana Derby and Florida Derby.

RON

Rank	Horse	Graded Earnings	Owner(s)	Trainer
1.	Hansen	$1,400,000	Kendall E. Hansen & Sky Chai Racing	Mike Maker
2.	Union Rags	$1,070,000	Chadds Ford Stable (Phyllis Wyeth)	Michael Matz
3.	Creative Cause	$686,000	Heinz Steinmann	Mike Harrington
4.	Sabercat	$601,429	Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC	Steve Asmussen
5.	Wrote (IRE)	$556,630	Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor	Aiden O'Brien
6.	Secret Circle	$470,000	Mike Pegram, Karl Watson & Paul Weitman	Bob Baffert
7.	Dullahan	$405,000	Donegal Racing (Jerry Crawford)	Dale Romans
8.	Liaison	$393,000	Arnold Zetcher LLC	Bob Baffert
9.	Prospective	$365,452	John C. Oxley	Mark Casse
10.	On Fire Baby (f)	$286,729	Anita Cauley	Gary Hartlage

Horse for course

Prospective has been a horse for course at Tampa Bay this year. He started

his three year old campaign with a win in the(7F) Pasco Stakes. In the Sam

F. Davis Stakes (1 1/16 mile), he closed for second place, beaten only 1 ½

lengths by Battle Hardened

With wins in the Gray Stakes (G-3)and in the Tampa Bay Derby, he has over

$300K on the Graded Earnings List.  He finished first or second in all

except one of his seven starts. His only off the board finish came in the

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished last.

He also has a has a stamina oriented pedigree, bred for Classic distances.

Tampa Bay Derby

The Tampa Bay Derby certainly has relevance as a prep considering Super Saver and Street Sense.

Now let’s look at Prospective, Tampa Bay Derby Winner, Sam Davis winner, Pasco Stakes (all at Tampa) and the Grey Stakes in Ontario. Never worse than 2^nd except the Breeders Cup Juvenile (Hansen and Union Rags) where he finished dead last.  He has AP Indy, Seattle Slew and Secretariat on the sire side and comes from the Northern Dancer on the Dam side. Not too bad when you look at the breeding and his consistency if you throw out the Breeders Cup juvy.

Tampa Bay Derby

Which prep race has had the most impact on the Kentucky Derby over the past five years? If you guessed the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, or any of the other major preps, you would be wrong.

Since 2006, the Tampa Bay Derby has produced two Kentucky Derby winners and a horse that finished third. Street Sense, who won the 2006 Tampa Bay Derby before going on to the Blue Grass Stakes, started the streak.  And in 2010, Super Saver finished a close third in Tampa's premier race, moved onto the Arkansas Derby, and then pulled an upset on the first Saturday in May. In 2009, Musket Man won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Illinois Derby then finished third in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

Pumped up prep purses

Eight weeks away from the Kentucky Derby and I hardly know who any of these horses are in this weekends prep races. The Tampa Bay Derby, which has thrown off a few good ponies the last few years like Super Saver and Street Sense, may be the most overlooked $350,000 race so far this season. I mean with the winners share being $210,000 somebody is going to jump up in the earning list. And the same can be said for the San Felipe at Santa Anita with a $300,000 purse. Who are these horses?

     I still contend that with all these pumped up prep purses it may take north of $250K to get in that green starting gate on May 5th and unless all the current leaders continue to dominate I think that figure may be more like $350,000. I mean look at what's coming up in the next five weekends; Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Arkansas Derby all with 1 million dollar purses, the Santa Anita Derby and Bluegrass carry $750,000 each, the Spiral (or whatever it's called this week), the Rebel and Illinois Derby with 500,000 each and of course that god damn cowboy Derby out there in New Mexico with 800 K on the line. I won't even bother you with the two $150,000 contest this weekend in Hallandale, the Swale (7 furlongs, 8 weeks out, really?) and the Palm Beach on grass (Animal Kingdom ran on grass, so can we ! ) and the other nine sub $250,000 races yet to be run. 

     The top ten in graded earning right now are over $200,000. So, the racing might not be the thing, it might just be the right spots for the right pay check. Damn, just get your hands on a three year old and then sell him after the first Saturday in May. My picks this weekend are any colts not trained by Todd Pletcher and any Dale Romans horse to hit the board.

-R-