Ron's Derby week take

ALPHA...........the Arabs VS the Irish (money won't buy this)

BODEMEISTER....True freak or bounce to the moon

CREATIVE CAUSE...All graded races, always cashes a check, already has run well at CD

DADDY LONG LEGS...Irish VS the Arabs (money won't buy this)

DADDY NOSE BEST...Undefeated as a sophomore at 1-1/8th, twice

DONE TALKING......Dead closer in a speed heavy race

DULLAHAN.............Dead closer in a speed heavy race

EL PADRINO......Beat up on weak FG horses

LIASION.............Bobby's 2nd string, lost by 15 total lengths in last two

MARK VALESKI.....The Governor and the girl (Brereton & Rosy) also beat up weak N.O. fields

OPTIMEZER.......Wayne, really? You lost by 20 in Hot Springs

GEMOLOGIST....Should be the fav, but won't. Undefeated, winner already at CD, so why wasn't he in the BC Juvy?

HANSON.........Will run all day, just not at 10 furlongs

I'LL HAVE ANOTHER.... Like Creative Cause? Then you must like this one, but has not run well outside Cali

PROSPECTIVE....King of Tampa

ROUSING SERMON....If he is so good why did Joe Talamo jump off?

SABERCAT.... Steve, really? You lost by 15 lengths in your last two.

TAKE CHARGE INDY....FLA Derby winner, Calvin aboard, nuff said!

TRINNIBERG.....Parboo, really? If the Derby gods have any justice he draws the rail.

UNION RAGS....All graded races, always cashes a check, already has run well at CD

WENT THE DAY WELL....Same team two years in a row? Derby Gods won't let it happen.

MY ADONIS.....I need him in the starting gate, cause I got him at 72-1 in the future book.

 

 

Derby Drama

If you see Gemologist and Creative Cause in a stretch dual,  you’re watching the son of Tiznow  battling with the son of Giant’s Causeway.

Ron's take

After looking at the form for days I think I have this Derby figured out. The top five finishers in last years Breeders Cup Juvenile were; Hanson, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Dullahan, Take Charge Indy. And that's your tri fecta  box for this years Derby!  And PLEASE stop telling me how great all these ponies are working. They should work well, tell me who is working shitty! Now that's news. 

 

-R-

 

Disclaimer: all opinions mentioned in this email are subject to change due to post postion draw, the ever changing god damned weather in the Ohio Valley and just because I can.

Horses easy, gamblin' hard

We are a little over a week away from Louisville being the center of the universe.

This is simple, hell just box all of the Breeder's Cup juvenille horses who have won major stakes races.

I think the connections of Trinniberg are making a huge mistake and are risking ruining the horse. He's a world class sprinter who doesnt belong in the Derby. He is going to impact the pace scenario in a bad way because all these speedballs will try to stay with him at a ridiculous 1/4 and 1/2 which sets up for Union Rags or Dullahan or even Daddy Nose best. He wont get a mile and a quarter at the pace he will run at. Who picks up the pieces in the stretch?

I'm still on Hansen but having said that, the Blue Grass was not the kind of prep you want to see right before the Derby. To win he needs to settle in off the pace. Few horses win the Derby on the front end.

If he goes to the front with the speed horses he's going too

fast. He is still a leading contender, I just wish the Blue Grass had been a better learning experience for him and got him in the habit of taking back naturally. I'm not convinced he knows how to rate off the pace, horses are creatures of habit, and the more times he goes to the front, the more he's going to think that's where he's supposed to be.

D

Kev's take

No argument - this is a quality group of 3 YO's.  At first - I looked at the overall speed in this group, and felt that “yeah, it’s there”, but we probably will not see anyone with "Suicidal" type speed or one who would attempt to let their horse “unbuckle” & go for broke.   But, now looking at it, I may have been mistaken. We have a couple of ponies here that know nothing else but to simply jump out of the gate & go.

Now, you guys have witnessed too many Derbys & have seen it with your own eyes - - - someone's gonna go to the front & TRY to stay there - and they very well MIGHT be able to pull it off - - it’s happened before.

So, who has the balls to try this ?  To me, that’s got to be; Gem, Bodie & Hansen.

Now that we've talked about Speed - let's get down to brass tax and talk about a mile & a quarter –  Yeah, reality !

There’s quality breeding everywhere – and the Preps only “tease” us with who might get the distance, who was charging at the end, who had a good trip, so on & so on.

Some of these horses have never had dirt in their face - and some can’t handle it – hence, going to the front & trying to stay there.  But, would that be Derby Suicide in trying to hold off a horse like Dullahan?  Good luck !
 

Let’s try to identify those who have been in traffic and managed it well – found a seam in the pack and came out of it to win or finish on the board.

Right now, I’m warm & fuzzy about Alpha and Union Rags – and Daddy Nose Best is screaming a mile and ¼ .

We’ve got some time & you can expect a few to fall by the way side which will change everything.

To be continued….

Hansen bandwagon

 If you were on the Hansen bandwagon before the Blue Grass, you should not get off now. The Derby distance is a question for Hansen, but  it is for every Derby starter. Remember that Hansen ran big off the poly-to-dirt  last fall going from Turfway Park to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He will be doing the same surface switch when he goes in the Derby.

A new star?

Dullahan earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for his victory Saturday in the Blue Grass Stakes after running down Hansen convincingly in the stretch. Trainer Dale Romans said Sunday morning that Dullahan came out of his  victory over Hansen in good shape and that his newest star will have one breeze at  Churchill Downs, on April 28.
Hansen of course led from the gate until the deep stretch. Well there's your deep closer. Now it's a matter of defections and jockey's agents closing the deal on their prospective mounts. Last year Big Dale almost got his Derby in wire to wire fashion when Shackleford led most of the way before fading in the final stretch.

 This may be our South End Louisville boy's year.

Saturday's Preps from Ron

I  think you better watch out for Big Dale's horse Dullhan, already a Grade 1 winner over the surface as a two year old, and he is a true closer in a field L-O-A-D-E-D with speed horses. Not to mention, he popped a :57 bullet work last Sunday heading into only his second start as a sophmore, and he is an Unbridled/Smart Strike cross.

 I think the plan for Hanson tomorrow is to just be a learning race. I believe they will pull him back and let all that speed take care of itself and try to teach him to rate, which is the main lesson he needs to learn before his May 5th ten furlong test in South Louisville. Then you have Baffert's third string in Fayette County, while his first string is in Hot Springs where I think Secret Circle may be the real deal. However, the Arkansas Derby has been known to throw off some wild results in the past.

 

-R-

The Big White Horse

 Hansen beat Union Rags and Creative Cause in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile  but was doubted as to whether he could get the 1-1/4 miles the first Saturday in May. He was  26-1 in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby future wager,  9-1 in Pool 2 , and was 8-1 in Pool 3, behind Union Rags, and the same price as Creative Cause. That Gotham dispeled the perception that he must have the lead to be at his best. He came from off the pace instead of being the pace and won handily. Im convinced the Holy Bull was a training race whether the trainer will admit it or not.Look at the fractions and try to convince me otherwise. Hansen has been an afterthought as Union Rags, Take Charge Indy, Creative Cause, I’ll Have Another, Gemologist, and Alpha have dominated the Derby discussion. If he doesn't win the Bluegrass it's because Ramon Dominguez isnt going to risk hurting him- Safe Trip Boys!

Dash for Cash!

With the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes still to be run Saturday, the cutoff for the Derby field  is now over $250,000. That puts a lot of hopefuls ( Mark Valeski, El Padrino, and Reveron) on a not too good bubble. Saturday’s Arkansas Derby is a must-win situation for Bodemeister, because $200,000 for running second would only bring him to $260,000.
We know there will be be defections before entry day May 2, but the cutoff, at this date, is higher than any amount I can recall. Gemologist and Alpha are bound for the Derby following their one-two finish in the Wood and of course the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass winners will grab those last couple of spots.

Calvin Borail

I am assuming that Calvin will stay on Take Charge Indy. If that is the case , don’t change a thing. Do just what you did in 2007, 2009, and 2010. Four  Derby wins in six years for four different trainers and four different owners?

 

 

 If you get the rail again, take it home Calvin!

Oops! Bad news for Hero of Order

Hero of Order’s 109-1 upset in the Louisiana Derby gives him $615,500 in graded earnings, but he is not nominated to the Triple Crown. He still can be supplemented to the Derby for $200,000, but supplemental entrants go to the back of the line, behind  horses who were nominated in January or March, regardless of earnings. Bad news for Hero of Order, but good news for nominees on the bubble.