Shackleford hangs on

A different pace scenario unfolded as I predicted. Flashpoint goes out front for :22 and :46, while it appeared that Shackleford sat just off the pace he was right there with the pace most of the race. Watching the race from Churchill, I hadn't cashed a ticket all day. I loaded up on Big Dale's horse with the big blaze. I could see that big white blaze barreling down the stretch and across the finish line. I go home with money and Churchill paid our bar tab.

Dale, from the South end Louisville boys to another-Congratulations!!


The SouLou crew

Ron's Preakness take

Damn May goes fast...Derby, Moms Day, Preakness, Memorial Day and BAM its June!

     Here's my take on the Baltimore horse contest this Saturday evening at 6:15...............

First let's look at history.....Derby winners have done well in the last twenty years or so throw A.K. out of your trifecta at your own peril.........Also, history whispers in my ear a new shooter always hits the board. My new shooter is DANCE CITY, just one of many speed balls in the race. I'm looking at that breeding of speed over stamina (Mr. Prospector with a Pleasant Colony/Northern Dancer mare on bottom). As well as Pletch having to "settle" for Ramon Dominguez instead of his number one boy Johnny V.

     Now lets put the history book under the front seat of the car and look out at the hood ornament as we fly into the future....No three year old EVER at this point in his career will have as much on the line at Dialed In. I mean do you really think Nicky and the owner wanted that Frenchman to push him in Louisville if at the 3/16th pole if he didn't have a chance with 6.1 million dollars waiting at Pimlico?  And remember Louis Qutores? Nick finished what 16th in the Derby to kill em at Old Hilltop 14 days later. 

    However, I really believe I'm going back to my Derby future pick of the MM MAN...the most experienced and consistent pony in the whole field. This will be his 7th Graded stakes in a row and, except for his his first race back from his 2 to 3 year old layoff, he  has always cashed a check. I told ya I hated that six week layoff from LA to LOU and now he should be tight. Get down on both knees and raise your hand to the heavens if you get that 6-1 morning line.

    This ain't going to be a rerun of what happened at the record breaking rose sniffing contest in Kentucky. That was the slowest first half splits since even before we were born (that includes even you Thom as well as my baby brother that hits 50 Monday). So look for a legitimate pace in the land of Mary. Bet heavy on the winners and light on the losers.

Ron

Preakness is here

After spending a week recuperating from Derby festivities I am back.

The question is-will a new shooter win the Preakness?

Actually Nehro dropping out has made my choices easier. I am not looking for any of the new shooter's to win this. I think it sets up for one of the big 3 Derby vets to win-Mucho Macho Man, Dialed in and Shackleford. I look for one of these 3 to get there, although I do think Baffert's 3rd string could be there.

Post draw today!!

D

Uncle Mo and more excuses

After months of excuses and dodging any real competition it looks like the Repole camp is yet making another excuse for Uncle Mo. Guess he isnt the next Super Horse

Ron's take

(Courtesy of Ron Davidson)

Gentlemen,

 Now after weeks and months of study all of us seem to be on the same horses generally. However, I do this every year the closer it gets to zero hour. I know we were going steady all year but when the prom comes up you have your eye on a couple of other girls. Because, damn, we wanna be right and all summer long your buddies will rag you for taking the wrong girl.

     SO.......lets get the pins out and start popping the balloons.  PANTS ON FIRE does indeed have the breeding. But being a one dimensional horse, he wants nothing but the lead (which is sort of counter to the stamina blood) and the times are just not that fast. His fastest half mile split is 47 and 2. Uncle Mo's fastest is 45 and 3.  In fact, Uncle Mo's slowest is 49 and 4 in the Wood. No, I do not like the ugly Uncle but I can see him  pressing the pace. NEHRO....I hate wise guy horses, they never win. He will be way over bet. It just looks too easy. ARCHARCHARCH I do think is legit. My only concern is he wintered at Hot Springs and sort had everybody come to him in that four race span. Just sat in his sandbox and beat up the neighborhood kids and anyone who came from outside. Sorry, Dwayne The Factor was never really a concern. But, he has been working lights out on the CD oval. MUCHO MACHO MAN you know I've been on and have a future bet on him at 25-1. I HATE the six week lay off from New Orleans. He did have a legit excuses in losing that front shoe and still finishing third. But you can read too much into an excuse. He has been working very well in the mornings  while in L-ville. And the big horse of course... DIALED IN. Nicky has done something he has never done. He didn't ship in until the last minute. His last real work at Palm Meadows before flying in Saturday. I do think he is a solid favorite but, will he be? Closers have to have everything go their way and he is not running against just seven other horses as he was in Hallendale. SOLDAT has his best performance lines when he is on or near the front and I believe that is what got to him in the FLA Derby. He did not like that kickback and just stopped. Again, he won't be running against a small field. He must push the pace. SHACKLEFORD is another thoroughbred that must be on the lead. And he was running out of gas fast when Dialed In nipped him at Gulfsteam. Another two furlongs and he would have been beaten six lengths.

     So Mister Wise Guy, Smarty Pants, Genius Horsey Guru what's the take? Well, all the ponies mentioned above cannot be discounted but here is my long shot to fuck up everybody's exotic bets. Remember, it's nice to have the winner but making money, honey is the game!  You know I hate the synthetic surfaces. However, the best closing move to me was BRILLIANT SPEED in the Bluegrass. He was dead last at the third turn and he was closing on dawdling fractions of  50 and 1  - 114 and 3 - 138 and 3  His 11.6 seconds for the last eighth, 34.5 for the last three-eighths is the fastest closing of all the entries and that's what I want to see. It's easy to let them come back to you and burn each other on the front end but to catch em when they are crawling?  The knock will be he ran his only two bad races when on dirt. Well, those were his first two races as a baby in sprints. Anyway, he is by Dynaformer (His Majesty 2 back) and you might remember they said the same thing about another of Dynaformer's sons in Barbaro. The jockey Joel Rosario is the leading jockey in the country by earnings right now and is winning at a 24% clip and 57% in the money.

     So, she used to be my girlfriend but three days before the prom, well you know.

-R-

Post positions

After much lamenting over my beloved Arch x 3 and the inside post I will remain with him. There is always a degree of luck in the world's hardest handicapping race and if Jon Court can maneuver he will have a chance. Arch is big, tough and proven. He had the rail in the Rebel.

Post Draw

Well it's done and Archaracharch has the rail. He had the rail in the Rebel and finished a respectable 3rd. I'm sticking with Jon and Jinx.

Arch x 3

Okay Boys one more stat to muddy up your handicapping.

A 4.00 Dosage Index is generally considered to be the cutoff, beyond which a horse is considered unlikely to successfully negotiate the  classic distance of 1 1/4 miles. This has been a consistent stat for the most part. So I present our horses we all like;

Pants on Fire-4.0

Nehro-             4.3

Dialed In-        3.6

Archx3-           1.73

Shackleford-  3.6

Soldat-            2.4

Mucho Macho Man-2.4

*Uncle Mo        2.2-Don’t believe in him but he warrants discussion

*Now my opinion of Uncle Mo is that I do not believe that a son of Indian Charlie can go this distance against a strong Field. That failure against real competition in his first attempt racing at 1 1/8 miles, along with his sprinter-miler sire in Indian Charlie, casts doubt on his route ability at the Derby Distance.

Kev-Soldat looks better and better to me

As usual I am probably wrong but I am sticking with Jinx Fires and Johnny Court

At the track

After going to Churchill and scouting the track today, my final 4 are; Archarcharach, Dialed In, Nehro and Shackleford

SLOP

Well we must concede that it will be a muddy Derby. Today's conditions favor one each Soldat. 3 for 3 in the slop and the highest mud rating. Looking at the conditions I will use Soldat but I  still like Archx3, and Shackleford. Look for front end pace here. (Did someone say Pants on Fire?) Good Luck to Rosie who beat the pants off the boys in Louisiana!

The Factor isn't

OKAY, OKAY I was wrong about The Factor

Derby 137

(Courtesy of Ron Davidson)
HORSES, shit..... I'm confused. I've been on Macho all along so I'm sticking there. However, do I see Rajiv Maragh as a Derby winner and a Derby newbie trainer?????

You have to admit Dialed In is a legit favorite but chalk tastes bad.....

A couple of years ago there was a horse at Oaklawn with what I thought was a dumb name, Smarty Jones. Well I got over it in time for the Derby and I feel the same way about Pants on Fire. Best bred horse in the whole bunch (which I told my brother last Saturday morning and then before the sun went down Steve Haskins blogged the same opinion).  Trouble is every woman will bet Rosie.

 The best looking prep to me was the Arkansan Derby and ArchX3 looks like the real deal.

Nehro will be the wise guy horse but many are saying he may be 4th betting choice and why not. I mean if you were teaching someone to read a racing form this is exactly what you would say to look for. Coming like a freight train in two major preps, hell he may be second choice by post time.

 I think the real wise guy horse should be Shackleford. Hell, if you like Dialed In you have to like him as well at 15 or 20 to one don't you?

(Dwayne)

Did anyone else notice that the The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial was really a Preakness prep?