Ron's take

(Courtesy of Ron Davidson)

Gentlemen,

 Now after weeks and months of study all of us seem to be on the same horses generally. However, I do this every year the closer it gets to zero hour. I know we were going steady all year but when the prom comes up you have your eye on a couple of other girls. Because, damn, we wanna be right and all summer long your buddies will rag you for taking the wrong girl.

     SO.......lets get the pins out and start popping the balloons.  PANTS ON FIRE does indeed have the breeding. But being a one dimensional horse, he wants nothing but the lead (which is sort of counter to the stamina blood) and the times are just not that fast. His fastest half mile split is 47 and 2. Uncle Mo's fastest is 45 and 3.  In fact, Uncle Mo's slowest is 49 and 4 in the Wood. No, I do not like the ugly Uncle but I can see him  pressing the pace. NEHRO....I hate wise guy horses, they never win. He will be way over bet. It just looks too easy. ARCHARCHARCH I do think is legit. My only concern is he wintered at Hot Springs and sort had everybody come to him in that four race span. Just sat in his sandbox and beat up the neighborhood kids and anyone who came from outside. Sorry, Dwayne The Factor was never really a concern. But, he has been working lights out on the CD oval. MUCHO MACHO MAN you know I've been on and have a future bet on him at 25-1. I HATE the six week lay off from New Orleans. He did have a legit excuses in losing that front shoe and still finishing third. But you can read too much into an excuse. He has been working very well in the mornings  while in L-ville. And the big horse of course... DIALED IN. Nicky has done something he has never done. He didn't ship in until the last minute. His last real work at Palm Meadows before flying in Saturday. I do think he is a solid favorite but, will he be? Closers have to have everything go their way and he is not running against just seven other horses as he was in Hallendale. SOLDAT has his best performance lines when he is on or near the front and I believe that is what got to him in the FLA Derby. He did not like that kickback and just stopped. Again, he won't be running against a small field. He must push the pace. SHACKLEFORD is another thoroughbred that must be on the lead. And he was running out of gas fast when Dialed In nipped him at Gulfsteam. Another two furlongs and he would have been beaten six lengths.

     So Mister Wise Guy, Smarty Pants, Genius Horsey Guru what's the take? Well, all the ponies mentioned above cannot be discounted but here is my long shot to fuck up everybody's exotic bets. Remember, it's nice to have the winner but making money, honey is the game!  You know I hate the synthetic surfaces. However, the best closing move to me was BRILLIANT SPEED in the Bluegrass. He was dead last at the third turn and he was closing on dawdling fractions of  50 and 1  - 114 and 3 - 138 and 3  His 11.6 seconds for the last eighth, 34.5 for the last three-eighths is the fastest closing of all the entries and that's what I want to see. It's easy to let them come back to you and burn each other on the front end but to catch em when they are crawling?  The knock will be he ran his only two bad races when on dirt. Well, those were his first two races as a baby in sprints. Anyway, he is by Dynaformer (His Majesty 2 back) and you might remember they said the same thing about another of Dynaformer's sons in Barbaro. The jockey Joel Rosario is the leading jockey in the country by earnings right now and is winning at a 24% clip and 57% in the money.

     So, she used to be my girlfriend but three days before the prom, well you know.

-R-