Ron's Triple Crown take

Well, we started all this six months ago and now here we are in mid June and I'm no smarter, or richer,  than I was last winter. It seems obvious to me Julian Leparoux  is what was wrong with Union Rags. Johnny V rode a great race and knew what to do and when to do it. And all of us pedigree guys are eating it now. I mean why would I put the co-favorite on the back end of my pick four ticket? I'm too smart for that! Oh, yeah I had the first three legs and the bet paid $1,283 ! ! !

   Oh, and to the  "I'm never betting a California horse again" guys....stand over there with that group of idiot pedigree guys. 1-2-3 in Louisville.....1-2 in Baltimore.....1-2 in New York. And remember the Breeders Cup will be on their home court.

And Ronnies last award for Triple Crown trainers who do and don't know what they're doing. First don't feel too sorry for Bobby B. when those guys still walk off with 600 K for trying to wire the Triple Crown. But the last award of the evening goes to D. What the Hell Lukas. Gets beat by 12 in the Derby, OK...by 15 in the Preakness, OK and by 28 in the Belmont. Not to mention the 20 length beat in Hot Springs. Remember we're doing what's best for the horse, right?

Ive had a few days to recover and digest it all. As I suspected the initial pace was a suicide mission although I expected Trinniberg to be on the lead through the half. Trinniberg pushed Bodemeister to such a fast half. it was a given he would get caught. However Bode ran one hell of a race and nearly pulled it off. Hansen was clearly rank and hard to control though he broke well.

In the stretch Bodemeister weakened and Mario Gutierrez on I’ll Have Another was in perfect striking position. After breaking from the 19 wide post position, he angled inside at the first turn and was only about one horse-wide from the rail. He never encountered any traffic trouble in the 20-horse field, and on the final turn he angled to the outside and past the leader.
He had a perfect trip.  I’ll Have Another finished the 1 1/4 miles in 2:01.83, a slow time over  a fast track. His overall Beyer Speed Figure of 101was the second-worst in the last 20 years ( Giacomo’s 100 in 2005.)

Based on that it's doubtful that he will sweep the Triple Crown series. I congratulate Mario Gutierrez on a great ride and the connections who gave this impressive young jockey his shot.

Ron's Derby week take

ALPHA...........the Arabs VS the Irish (money won't buy this)

BODEMEISTER....True freak or bounce to the moon

CREATIVE CAUSE...All graded races, always cashes a check, already has run well at CD

DADDY LONG LEGS...Irish VS the Arabs (money won't buy this)

DADDY NOSE BEST...Undefeated as a sophomore at 1-1/8th, twice

DONE TALKING......Dead closer in a speed heavy race

DULLAHAN.............Dead closer in a speed heavy race

EL PADRINO......Beat up on weak FG horses

LIASION.............Bobby's 2nd string, lost by 15 total lengths in last two

MARK VALESKI.....The Governor and the girl (Brereton & Rosy) also beat up weak N.O. fields

OPTIMEZER.......Wayne, really? You lost by 20 in Hot Springs

GEMOLOGIST....Should be the fav, but won't. Undefeated, winner already at CD, so why wasn't he in the BC Juvy?

HANSON.........Will run all day, just not at 10 furlongs

I'LL HAVE ANOTHER.... Like Creative Cause? Then you must like this one, but has not run well outside Cali

PROSPECTIVE....King of Tampa

ROUSING SERMON....If he is so good why did Joe Talamo jump off?

SABERCAT.... Steve, really? You lost by 15 lengths in your last two.

TAKE CHARGE INDY....FLA Derby winner, Calvin aboard, nuff said!

TRINNIBERG.....Parboo, really? If the Derby gods have any justice he draws the rail.

UNION RAGS....All graded races, always cashes a check, already has run well at CD

WENT THE DAY WELL....Same team two years in a row? Derby Gods won't let it happen.

MY ADONIS.....I need him in the starting gate, cause I got him at 72-1 in the future book.

 

 

Derby Drama

If you see Gemologist and Creative Cause in a stretch dual,  you’re watching the son of Tiznow  battling with the son of Giant’s Causeway.

Ron's take

After looking at the form for days I think I have this Derby figured out. The top five finishers in last years Breeders Cup Juvenile were; Hanson, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Dullahan, Take Charge Indy. And that's your tri fecta  box for this years Derby!  And PLEASE stop telling me how great all these ponies are working. They should work well, tell me who is working shitty! Now that's news. 

 

-R-

 

Disclaimer: all opinions mentioned in this email are subject to change due to post postion draw, the ever changing god damned weather in the Ohio Valley and just because I can.

Horses easy, gamblin' hard

We are a little over a week away from Louisville being the center of the universe.

This is simple, hell just box all of the Breeder's Cup juvenille horses who have won major stakes races.

I think the connections of Trinniberg are making a huge mistake and are risking ruining the horse. He's a world class sprinter who doesnt belong in the Derby. He is going to impact the pace scenario in a bad way because all these speedballs will try to stay with him at a ridiculous 1/4 and 1/2 which sets up for Union Rags or Dullahan or even Daddy Nose best. He wont get a mile and a quarter at the pace he will run at. Who picks up the pieces in the stretch?

I'm still on Hansen but having said that, the Blue Grass was not the kind of prep you want to see right before the Derby. To win he needs to settle in off the pace. Few horses win the Derby on the front end.

If he goes to the front with the speed horses he's going too

fast. He is still a leading contender, I just wish the Blue Grass had been a better learning experience for him and got him in the habit of taking back naturally. I'm not convinced he knows how to rate off the pace, horses are creatures of habit, and the more times he goes to the front, the more he's going to think that's where he's supposed to be.

D

Kev's take

No argument - this is a quality group of 3 YO's.  At first - I looked at the overall speed in this group, and felt that “yeah, it’s there”, but we probably will not see anyone with "Suicidal" type speed or one who would attempt to let their horse “unbuckle” & go for broke.   But, now looking at it, I may have been mistaken. We have a couple of ponies here that know nothing else but to simply jump out of the gate & go.

Now, you guys have witnessed too many Derbys & have seen it with your own eyes - - - someone's gonna go to the front & TRY to stay there - and they very well MIGHT be able to pull it off - - it’s happened before.

So, who has the balls to try this ?  To me, that’s got to be; Gem, Bodie & Hansen.

Now that we've talked about Speed - let's get down to brass tax and talk about a mile & a quarter –  Yeah, reality !

There’s quality breeding everywhere – and the Preps only “tease” us with who might get the distance, who was charging at the end, who had a good trip, so on & so on.

Some of these horses have never had dirt in their face - and some can’t handle it – hence, going to the front & trying to stay there.  But, would that be Derby Suicide in trying to hold off a horse like Dullahan?  Good luck !
 

Let’s try to identify those who have been in traffic and managed it well – found a seam in the pack and came out of it to win or finish on the board.

Right now, I’m warm & fuzzy about Alpha and Union Rags – and Daddy Nose Best is screaming a mile and ¼ .

We’ve got some time & you can expect a few to fall by the way side which will change everything.

To be continued….

Hansen bandwagon

 If you were on the Hansen bandwagon before the Blue Grass, you should not get off now. The Derby distance is a question for Hansen, but  it is for every Derby starter. Remember that Hansen ran big off the poly-to-dirt  last fall going from Turfway Park to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He will be doing the same surface switch when he goes in the Derby.

A new star?

Dullahan earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for his victory Saturday in the Blue Grass Stakes after running down Hansen convincingly in the stretch. Trainer Dale Romans said Sunday morning that Dullahan came out of his  victory over Hansen in good shape and that his newest star will have one breeze at  Churchill Downs, on April 28.
Hansen of course led from the gate until the deep stretch. Well there's your deep closer. Now it's a matter of defections and jockey's agents closing the deal on their prospective mounts. Last year Big Dale almost got his Derby in wire to wire fashion when Shackleford led most of the way before fading in the final stretch.

 This may be our South End Louisville boy's year.

Saturday's Preps from Ron

I  think you better watch out for Big Dale's horse Dullhan, already a Grade 1 winner over the surface as a two year old, and he is a true closer in a field L-O-A-D-E-D with speed horses. Not to mention, he popped a :57 bullet work last Sunday heading into only his second start as a sophmore, and he is an Unbridled/Smart Strike cross.

 I think the plan for Hanson tomorrow is to just be a learning race. I believe they will pull him back and let all that speed take care of itself and try to teach him to rate, which is the main lesson he needs to learn before his May 5th ten furlong test in South Louisville. Then you have Baffert's third string in Fayette County, while his first string is in Hot Springs where I think Secret Circle may be the real deal. However, the Arkansas Derby has been known to throw off some wild results in the past.

 

-R-

The Big White Horse

 Hansen beat Union Rags and Creative Cause in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile  but was doubted as to whether he could get the 1-1/4 miles the first Saturday in May. He was  26-1 in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby future wager,  9-1 in Pool 2 , and was 8-1 in Pool 3, behind Union Rags, and the same price as Creative Cause. That Gotham dispeled the perception that he must have the lead to be at his best. He came from off the pace instead of being the pace and won handily. Im convinced the Holy Bull was a training race whether the trainer will admit it or not.Look at the fractions and try to convince me otherwise. Hansen has been an afterthought as Union Rags, Take Charge Indy, Creative Cause, I’ll Have Another, Gemologist, and Alpha have dominated the Derby discussion. If he doesn't win the Bluegrass it's because Ramon Dominguez isnt going to risk hurting him- Safe Trip Boys!

Dash for Cash!

With the Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes still to be run Saturday, the cutoff for the Derby field  is now over $250,000. That puts a lot of hopefuls ( Mark Valeski, El Padrino, and Reveron) on a not too good bubble. Saturday’s Arkansas Derby is a must-win situation for Bodemeister, because $200,000 for running second would only bring him to $260,000.
We know there will be be defections before entry day May 2, but the cutoff, at this date, is higher than any amount I can recall. Gemologist and Alpha are bound for the Derby following their one-two finish in the Wood and of course the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass winners will grab those last couple of spots.

Calvin Borail

I am assuming that Calvin will stay on Take Charge Indy. If that is the case , don’t change a thing. Do just what you did in 2007, 2009, and 2010. Four  Derby wins in six years for four different trainers and four different owners?

 

 

 If you get the rail again, take it home Calvin!

Oops! Bad news for Hero of Order

Hero of Order’s 109-1 upset in the Louisiana Derby gives him $615,500 in graded earnings, but he is not nominated to the Triple Crown. He still can be supplemented to the Derby for $200,000, but supplemental entrants go to the back of the line, behind  horses who were nominated in January or March, regardless of earnings. Bad news for Hero of Order, but good news for nominees on the bubble.

Hansen to the Bluegrass

Yes the trend of pursing up against soft competition continues as well as protecting the investment. Having said that I think Mike Maker made a good decision with Hansen. I do not expect Hansen to win the Bluegrass even though I believe he is more than capable. This is a perfect opportunity for a training race that may pay big dividends both for the purse and breeding potential. I would bet money that Ramon Dominguez will be instructed not to risk him if he is not in a good position, he certainly doesn't need the earnings and a respectable 3rd is what I am predicting although being a fan of the Great White Hope I would like to see him win decisively. Keep him in Kentucky, less stress and remember he won his maiden and Ky Cup Juvenile on the poly at Turfway. He has already worked at Churchill and is obviously comfortable there. I want to see the big White horse come out of the Bluegrass sound. If he places or shows at Keeneland maybe he will go off at a halfway decent price come the first Saturday in May. Go Big Whitey!

Dodge Em has begun

Well with the news that Hanson is going in the Bluegrass instead of the Wood Memorial, the real game of dodge ‘em begins. With the big grey 2 year old champ staying in Kentucky the connections of Alpha say they will now go in the Wood Memorial instead of the Louisiana Derby. They just want to stay away from a challenge and need that big paycheck to get in the gate May 5^th. 

     Now, to this weeks preps. Although I have been saying, “who are these horses” in the preps up to now, I truly mean it this weekend. I really have never heard of any of the full field of 12 in the Vinery/ Jim Beam/ Gallery Furniture/ Lanes End SPIRAL Stakes at Turfway.  And the same goes for the Sunland Derby, what we like to call the Cowboy Derby in these parts. However, they don’t lack top connections and appear as the second and third strings also trying to cash out. In the two races we have Pletcher with 3, Baffert with 2, along with Assmussen, Motion, Maker, Hollendorfer as trainers.

     As you can see by the top ten in earning as of now at least two new horses will hit this list Monday morning. So, I’m not gonna think about it and save my money for the real deals over the next three weeks starting next weekend with both the Louisiana Derby and Florida Derby.

RON

Rank	Horse	Graded Earnings	Owner(s)	Trainer
1.	Hansen	$1,400,000	Kendall E. Hansen & Sky Chai Racing	Mike Maker
2.	Union Rags	$1,070,000	Chadds Ford Stable (Phyllis Wyeth)	Michael Matz
3.	Creative Cause	$686,000	Heinz Steinmann	Mike Harrington
4.	Sabercat	$601,429	Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC	Steve Asmussen
5.	Wrote (IRE)	$556,630	Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor	Aiden O'Brien
6.	Secret Circle	$470,000	Mike Pegram, Karl Watson & Paul Weitman	Bob Baffert
7.	Dullahan	$405,000	Donegal Racing (Jerry Crawford)	Dale Romans
8.	Liaison	$393,000	Arnold Zetcher LLC	Bob Baffert
9.	Prospective	$365,452	John C. Oxley	Mark Casse
10.	On Fire Baby (f)	$286,729	Anita Cauley	Gary Hartlage

Horse for course

Prospective has been a horse for course at Tampa Bay this year. He started

his three year old campaign with a win in the(7F) Pasco Stakes. In the Sam

F. Davis Stakes (1 1/16 mile), he closed for second place, beaten only 1 ½

lengths by Battle Hardened

With wins in the Gray Stakes (G-3)and in the Tampa Bay Derby, he has over

$300K on the Graded Earnings List.  He finished first or second in all

except one of his seven starts. His only off the board finish came in the

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished last.

He also has a has a stamina oriented pedigree, bred for Classic distances.

Tampa Bay Derby

The Tampa Bay Derby certainly has relevance as a prep considering Super Saver and Street Sense.

Now let’s look at Prospective, Tampa Bay Derby Winner, Sam Davis winner, Pasco Stakes (all at Tampa) and the Grey Stakes in Ontario. Never worse than 2^nd except the Breeders Cup Juvenile (Hansen and Union Rags) where he finished dead last.  He has AP Indy, Seattle Slew and Secretariat on the sire side and comes from the Northern Dancer on the Dam side. Not too bad when you look at the breeding and his consistency if you throw out the Breeders Cup juvy.

Tampa Bay Derby

Which prep race has had the most impact on the Kentucky Derby over the past five years? If you guessed the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, or any of the other major preps, you would be wrong.

Since 2006, the Tampa Bay Derby has produced two Kentucky Derby winners and a horse that finished third. Street Sense, who won the 2006 Tampa Bay Derby before going on to the Blue Grass Stakes, started the streak.  And in 2010, Super Saver finished a close third in Tampa's premier race, moved onto the Arkansas Derby, and then pulled an upset on the first Saturday in May. In 2009, Musket Man won the Tampa Bay Derby and the Illinois Derby then finished third in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

Pumped up prep purses

Eight weeks away from the Kentucky Derby and I hardly know who any of these horses are in this weekends prep races. The Tampa Bay Derby, which has thrown off a few good ponies the last few years like Super Saver and Street Sense, may be the most overlooked $350,000 race so far this season. I mean with the winners share being $210,000 somebody is going to jump up in the earning list. And the same can be said for the San Felipe at Santa Anita with a $300,000 purse. Who are these horses?

     I still contend that with all these pumped up prep purses it may take north of $250K to get in that green starting gate on May 5th and unless all the current leaders continue to dominate I think that figure may be more like $350,000. I mean look at what's coming up in the next five weekends; Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Arkansas Derby all with 1 million dollar purses, the Santa Anita Derby and Bluegrass carry $750,000 each, the Spiral (or whatever it's called this week), the Rebel and Illinois Derby with 500,000 each and of course that god damn cowboy Derby out there in New Mexico with 800 K on the line. I won't even bother you with the two $150,000 contest this weekend in Hallandale, the Swale (7 furlongs, 8 weeks out, really?) and the Palm Beach on grass (Animal Kingdom ran on grass, so can we ! ) and the other nine sub $250,000 races yet to be run. 

     The top ten in graded earning right now are over $200,000. So, the racing might not be the thing, it might just be the right spots for the right pay check. Damn, just get your hands on a three year old and then sell him after the first Saturday in May. My picks this weekend are any colts not trained by Todd Pletcher and any Dale Romans horse to hit the board.

-R-

Ron's early take

Ron Davidson; Tri State Derby Entourage

Well, it’s coming around again gentlemen. That post winter epiphany we all look so forward to.  It was 70 degrees in Louisville, Kentucky today, baseball players are reporting for spring training (which has an odd feeling for us STL Cardinal fans coming off a World Series win facing the new season with no Albert Pujols or Tony Larussa). The prep races  to prep races are now are over and what I’ve always considered the real opening to the Derby season is this Sunday with Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream,  the final prep for the Florida Derby.

    As soon as the Breeder’s Cup Juvy was over I turned to you all and said even though Hanson beat Union Rags, the big white horse would get no respect and the Rags would be the one the geniuses would key on. And they have. And in reality it’s legit because I believe another sixteenth of a mile Hanson would have lost on the first Saturday in November at CD. I’m not big on any front runner, as Hanson is, when it comes to the classics. So, here we are almost four months later with Union Rags making his debut going against a Pletcher double entry. That sets up badly for Rags but sent Hanson packing to New York to prep in the Gotham.

   Algorithms looks like the real deal in Hallendale (even though I hate Pletcher)  who is 3-3 with two wins already over the GP track and putting Hanson away in the process by winning the Holy Bull. However, I’ve seen this before where a horse will dominate early in his 3 year old campaign and bounce down the line. Like winning the battle and losing the war. I want a horse who is hitting it right now with ten weeks to go before the mile and quarter race we hold in Louisville.  Trouble is, I don’t see it in this race. Nicky Z is the only other shot with Casual Trick, but god damn, he lost his last race at GP by THIRTY lengths. So, you have to just throw that out because he just lost by two lengths before that in the Gulfstream Park Derby.

     Also, this weekend will bring the final prep to the Louisiana Derby in the Risen Star. I’m sticking with Mr. Bowling, who I had as the Lecomte winner. Although, I think Asmussen’s Z Dager will be the chalk. I sense an upset in the Crescent City late Saturday afternoon.

    And one more item to put before you. With all these pumped up purses this season I think it will take a minimum of $250,000 this year to get into the gate for the Central Avenue 10 furlong contest this May. Oh, my horse here late in February? Well, as it is no surprise, it's a Pleasant Colony offspring who came like a freight train in the Holy Bull  when he came from 20 lengths back after a half-mile over a speed-conducive sloppy sealed track, and was still nearly a dozen lengths back at the head of the stretch to finish third behind a second place Hanson. It’s My Adonis and his next start is next weekend in the Gotham against the two year old champ, the big white horse, Hanson.

Triple Crown Sires

Tied atop the roster of leading Triple Crown sires is two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow and Unbridled’s Song, each with 12 Triple Crown nominees.  Malibu Moon and Street Sense, the winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, share the next spot with 11 nominees.   War Front sired 10, with Hard Spun and Smart Strike next with nine.

397 on the roster

20 will get in the gate........

Hansen

Im not sure why they pushed Hansen to a :45 half at the Holy Bull. I wish I could have heard Mike Maker's instructions to Ramon Dominguez. I guess a public work out with an $80,000 check aint a bad days work

99 DAYS

Come on man ,six entries? It's called lets dodge each other and purse up

against soft competition. Hansen should walk over this field. This isn't Uncle Mo, this horse has a shot. I know the history with Juvie BC winners but remember Street Sense?

D

99 DAYS

99 days till the May 5th horse contest in Loueeville and what I don't understand is how the Holy Bull, Sunday at Gulfstream, being a $400,000 graded race can only draw six horses. If my math is right the winner takes 240K. That would be enough in graded earnings alone in most years to make the starting gate. Then last week in the Lecomte (G3)  in New Orleans a $175,000 race (winner taking $105,000) draws a full field?????


-RON

Holy Bull Batman!

Entries close Thursday for Sunday's one-mile, Grade III Holy Bull Stakes. Leading the pack will be Hansen the front-running winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Count on him to set set the pace after breezing the first three furlongs of his most recent workout in :34 and change.

Hansen ready for the Holy Bull

BC Juvenile champion Hansen completed preparation for his 3-year-old  debut in the one mile $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), Jan 29th. Normally I do not get too excited about BC Juvies but I like this colt a lot after watching him win his graded stakes debut at Turfway and then on to a convincing (albeit) close win in the Breeders Cup. You have to make it to the gate on the first Saturday in May and we have a long way to go...........

The next super horse?

Rachel Alexandra, 2009 Horse of the Year, gave birth Jan. 22 to a 125-pound colt by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin.

The bay colt was born at 2:40 p.m. EST at Stonestreet Farm near Lexington, Ky.  Emblazoned with a white star, the alert colt bears a striking resemblance to his mother. Stonestreet reports that all was well with both mare and foal.

Early Noms close

Triple Crown early nominations close today, 104-4-21

STEPHEN FOSTER UNDER THE LIGHTS?

Of all the cards to shift under the lights...The Stephen Foster card? The second biggest day in the spring meet. Guess they didnt put those lights in for show. Next up; a Kentucky Derby in prime time? Dont think they won't do it.

‎108 days-21 hours-56 minutes

Here we go

Horse of the Year is a done deal and no big surprise. Congratulations Larry and Havre De Grace (however you say it). Time to start disussing 3 year olds. The Tri State Derby entourage will be kicking into gear. It's way too early to be getting excited but you have to admit Hansen is getting deserved attention. Speaking of fillies, On Fire Baby didn"t beat the boys at Oaklawn but ran a respectable race.

Horse of the Year

  Horse of the Year appears to be a foregone conclusion: Havre de Grace, who did not have a season or run like Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta when they ran 1-2 at the polls in 2009, or as Zenyatta and Blame in 2010,  appears to have no serious competition for  2011

2012 Derby

Here we are a year later and the Triple Crown drought continues. The eclipse awards are Monday and there has been no dominant standout, no Rachael Alexandra or Zenyatta. Havre De Grace is obviously the default winner. I thought Shackleford was a lock in the Breeder's Cup Mile. Who the hell had Court Vision at 66-1?
The preps have started and I like Hansen in the Holy Bull. Normally I am quick to dismiss the Breeder's Cup Juvy winners (remember Uncle Mo?) but I like Hansen a lot and he has the breeding for the classic distances with 2 decisive and impressive wins as a 2 year old. We have a long way to go;113 days to be exact. You have to get in the gate to win the Derby. So our journey to Central Avenue begins.......